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Europe and the United States needs to recover 7075 aluminum

addtiame:2016/10/17 click:
2009 aluminum alloy sheet in the entire financial and commodity markets in the performance of eye-catching, although the end of the season approaching, but the non-ferrous market is still strong trend, and refresh the high point of the potential.

Economic recovery, consumption growth adds power

The main reason for the strong market performance of the 7075 aluminum alloy market this year is that the money supply has stimulated a large number of investment demand. From the current point of view, China and the United States will remain loose monetary policy, and the role of the first half of the policy appeared, the end of the global economic recovery is evident.

The latest data show that the global manufacturing index continued to expand, including the United States and Chinese reached 55.7 and 55.4, for the first time in Europe back to more than 50, 50.7 of global manufacturing new orders increased, which makes Aluminum Alloy aluminum consumption driven by.

According to the European 7075 aluminum alloy manufacturing Federation said that at present the demand for aluminum alloy aluminum alloy is a technical rebound. U.S. car sales in October after seasonal factors adjusted to reach about 15 million units, the highest level since the year.

Canton fair news shows that the mechanical and electrical products than the previous increase of 20%, which is the main home appliance turnover, an increase of 11.7% compared to the previous, consumer electronics has become the largest increase in exports of goods, an increase of 62.9%. Hardware tools, transportation tools, construction and decoration materials, electronic and electrical products were more than 2 of the turnover, it is visible to the enterprise to the basic inventory has been completed, to enter the new procurement period.

International Monetary Fund's latest forecast will be the world's GDP forecast this year, the global forecast from July to 1.4% increase in the contraction of 1.1%, while 2010 GDP from growth of 2.5% raised to 3.1%. From a historical perspective, the global economic growth in more than 3% indicates that the economy is in a state of expansion, in this context, the tone of the aluminum market, the market will be up.

Inventory more locked, the fundamentals are improving

The rapid rise in the price of aluminum alloy aluminum prices have been suppressed, copper, aluminum, zinc huge inventory to bring pressure on the market. At present, LME copper aluminum and zinc respectively in 370 thousand tons, inventory 4 million 550 thousand tons and 420 thousand tons, the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper, aluminum and zinc were also in the inventory of 100 thousand tons, 260 thousand tons and 140 thousand tons. But we believe that a large part of the stock is used as collateral for financing, the short term is difficult to release to the spot market. In addition, as the economic recovery, consumption improves, the fundamentals are changing.

Such as the 2010 copper processing fees Chinese negotiations in 2010 as a result of copper concentrate supply is still insufficient, estimate the processing fee copper at $45 / ton and 4.5 cents / pound, lower than the 2009 annual China copper processing fees of $75 / ton and 7.5 cents / pound. In the first quarter of 2010 Asia Aluminum trade premium will be higher than the quarter, indicating that the next few months to maintain tight spot market supply.

According to the latest news, the first quarter of next year to Hongkong, South Korea and mainland China delivered three Australia than London Aluminum Alloy aluminum ingots exchange backwardation will exceed $130 / ton, delivery to the three undetermined origin ingot premium of about 120 U.S. dollars / ton, with the rising water are higher than those of Japanese buyers in the fourth quarter of 2009 pay the $115 premium, while Japanese buyers price is already a 14 year high.

We believe that the basic surface of aluminum alloy aluminum or with a dynamic perspective, the economic recovery in the trend was broken before the economic recovery should be driven to improve the fundamentals of the basic tone.

To sum up, loose monetary policy and the global economic recovery to non-ferrous market Aluminum Alloy laid the foundation plate upward, gradual improvement in fundamentals, Aluminum Alloy aluminum market momentum still exists, estimated Aluminum Alloy aluminum market will perform a "consumption off-season" situation.